Home > Render/Stair/Hanna Chapter 1
© 2008 Prentice-Hall,
Inc.
Chapter 1
To accompany
Quantitative
Analysis for Management, Tenth Edition, by Render, Stair, and Hanna
Power Point slides
created by Jeff Heyl
Introduction to
Quantitative Analysis
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Introduction
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Need for Operations
Management
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Need for OM
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Need for OM
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Need for OM
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Need for OM
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Need for OM
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Examples of Quantitative
Analyses
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Meaningful
Information
Quantitative
Analysis
Quantitative analysis is a scientific approach to managerial decision
making whereby raw data are processed and manipulated resulting in meaningful
information
Raw Data
What is Quantitative Analysis?
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Quantitative factors might be different investment alternatives, interest rates, inventory levels, demand, or labor cost
Qualitative factors such as the weather, state and federal legislation, and technology breakthroughs should also be considered
What is Quantitative Analysis?
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Implementing the Results
Analyzing the Results
Testing the Solution
Developing a Solution
Acquiring Input Data
Developing a Model
The Quantitative
Analysis Approach
Defining the Problem
Figure 1.1
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Defining the Problem
Need to develop a clear and concise statement that gives direction and meaning to the following steps
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Developing a Model
Quantitative analysis models are realistic,
solvable, and understandable mathematical representations of a situation
There are different types of models
$ Advertising
$ Sales
Y =
b0 +
b1X
Schematic models
Scale models
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Developing a Model
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Acquiring Input
Data
Input data must be accurate – GIGO
rule
Data may come from a variety of sources
such as company reports, company documents, interviews, on-site direct
measurement, or statistical sampling
Garbage In
Process
Garbage Out
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Developing a Solution
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Testing the Solution
Both input data and the model should be tested for accuracy before analysis and implementation
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Analyzing the Results
Determine the implications of the solution
Sensitivity analysis determines how much the results of the analysis will change if the model or input data changes
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Implementing the
Results
Implementation incorporates the solution into the company
Changes occur over time, so even successful implementations must be monitored to determine if modifications are necessary
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Modeling in the
Real World
Quantitative analysis models are used extensively by real organizations to solve real problems
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How To Develop a
Quantitative Analysis Model
Profit = Revenue – Expenses
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How To Develop a
Quantitative Analysis Model
Expenses can be represented as the
sum of fixed and variable costs and variable costs are the product of
unit costs times the number of units
Profit = Revenue – (Fixed cost + Variable cost)
Profit = (Selling price per unit)(number of units sold) – [Fixed cost + (Variable costs per unit)(Number of units sold)]
Profit = sX – [f + vX]
Profit = sX – f –
vX
where
s = selling price per unit v = variable cost per unit
f = fixed cost X = number of units sold
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How To Develop a
Quantitative Analysis Model
Expenses can be represented as the
sum of fixed and variable costs and variable costs are the product of
unit costs times the number of units
Profit = Revenue – (Fixed cost + Variable cost)
Profit = (Selling price per unit)(number of units sold) – [Fixed cost + (Variable costs per unit)(Number of units sold)]
Profit = sX – [f + vX]
Profit = sX – f –
vX
where
s = selling price per unit v = variable cost per unit
f = fixed cost X = number of units sold
The parameters of this model are f, v, and s as these are the inputs inherent in the model
The decision variable of interest is X
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Bagels ‘R Us
Profits = Revenue - Expenses
Profits = $1*Number Sold - $100 - $.50*Number
Sold
Assume you are the new owner of Bagels
R Us and you want to develop a mathematical model for your daily profits
and breakeven point. Your fixed overhead is $100 per day and your variable
costs are 0.50 per bagel (these are GREAT bagels). You charge $1 per
bagel.
(Price per
Unit) (Number Sold)
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Breakeven Example
f=$100, s=$1, v=$.50
X=f/(s-v)
X=100/(1-.5)
X=200
At this point, Profits are 0
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Pritchett’s Precious
Time Pieces
Profits = sX
– f – vX
The company buys, sells, and repairs
old clocks. Rebuilt springs sell for $10 per unit. Fixed cost of equipment
to build springs is $1,000. Variable cost for spring material is $5
per unit.
s = 10 f = 1,000 v = 5
Number of spring sets sold = X
If sales = 0, profits = –$1,000
If sales = 1,000, profits = [(10)(1,000) – 1,000 – (5)(1,000)]
= $4,000
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Pritchett’s Precious
Time Pieces
0 = sX
– f – vX, or 0 = (s – v)X
– f
Companies are often interested in
their break-even
point (BEP). The BEP is
the number of units sold that will result in $0 profit.
Solving for X, we have
f = (s – v)X
X =
f
s
– v
BEP =
Fixed cost
(Selling price per unit) – (Variable cost per unit)
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Pritchett’s Precious
Time Pieces
0 = sX
– f – vX, or 0 = (s – v)X
– f
Companies are often interested in
their break-even
point (BEP). The BEP is
the number of units sold that will result in $0 profit.
Solving for X, we have
f = (s – v)X
X =
f
s
– v
BEP =
Fixed cost
(Selling price per
unit) – (Variable cost per unit)
BEP for Pritchett’s Precious Time
Pieces
BEP = $1,000/($10
– $5) = 200 units
Sales of less than 200 units of rebuilt springs will result in a loss
Sales of over 200 units of rebuilt springs will result in a profit
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Examples
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Examples
Seeing a need for childcare in her community, Sue decided to launch her own daycare service. Her service needed to be affordable, so she decided to watch each child for $12 a day. After doing her homework, Sue came up with the following financial information:
Selling Price (per child per day) $12
Operating Expenses (per month)
Insurance 400 + Rent 200 = Total OE $600
Costs of goods sold $4.00 per unit
Meals 2 @ $1.50 (breakfast & lunch)
Snacks 2 @ $0.50
How many children will she need to watch on a monthly basis to breakeven?
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Examples
Applying the formula, we have:
$600/($12-$4) = 75
She has to have a total of 75 children in her program over the month to breakeven.
If she is open only 20 days per month then she needs
75/20=3.75 children per day on the
average.
Expenses per month $600 + 75*$4.00 = $900
Revenue per month 75*$12 = $900
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Advantages of Mathematical
Modeling
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Models Categorized
by Risk
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
QM for Windows
Program 1.1
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
Excel QM’s Main Menu (2003)
Program 1.2A
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
Excel QM’s Main Menu (2007)
Program 1.2B
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
Excel QM for the Break-Even Problem
Program 1.3A
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
Excel QM Solution to the Break-Even
Problem
Program 1.3B
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
Using Goal Seek in the Break-Even
Problem
Program 1.4
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Computers and Spreadsheet
Models
Using Goal Seek in the Break-Even
Problem
Program 1.4
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Possible Problems
in the Quantitative Analysis Approach
Defining the problem
Developing a model
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Possible Problems
in the Quantitative Analysis Approach
Acquiring input data
Developing a solution
Testing the solution
Analyzing the results
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Implementation –
Not Just the Final Step
Lack of commitment and resistance to change
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Implementation –
Not Just the Final Step
Lack of commitment by quantitative analysts
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